Flood in Sindh

Recent heavy rains in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh, and consequent flooding in large parts of the country is definitely an unmitigated disaster, likely to affect both the economy and the welfare of people. The extent of damage could be partly gauged from the statement of the Chairman of National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) which has confirmed that so far four to five million people in Sindh have been affected, death toll has reached 132, nearly 700,000 houses will need to be refurbished to make them livable and standing crops on 1.7 million acres have been destroyed. As the calamity is not yet over, the losses could mount in the coming days and weeks.

A glimpse into the likely impact of the disaster on the economy could be had from news items, affirming that cotton production target of 15 million bales for the current year is likely to be missed by about 2-2.5 million bales because of massive damage to the crop during the ongoing rains.

According to Ghulam Rabbani, Director, Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) who is on a tour of interior Sindh to estimate the losses to cotton crop from rains and flood, cotton crop in over 20 districts of Sindh has been badly damaged, the province is likely to achieve only 50-60 percent of its target and the provincial production is not expected to exceed 3 million bales. Government is expected to revise cotton production target sometime in October after collecting details of cotton crop losses and there is likelihood that it will be set at 12-13 million bales.

It is more than obvious that the said misfortune is a bolt from the blue and will have highly negative consequences for the economy which is already tottering under the influence of worsening economic indicators. As is well-known, cotton is the main cash crop of the country which contributes significantly to national economy in terms of value addition in agriculture sector and GDP, employment and exports, etc. About two-thirds of country's exports originate from cotton and its products while a large part of formal and informal employment revolves around and is dependent on the vibrancy of this sector. Cotton prices have already soared to around Rs 7,000 per maund in the local market due to the reports of damage to the standing crop and this is going to reduce the level of our exports because cotton crop in other parts of the world is expected to be nearly 11 percent higher this year, prices in the international market have slumped in the recent past, and it is going to be difficult for our exporters to compete at the global level. Some of the minor crops have also been badly affected. According to a rough estimate, losses to Kharif crops in Sindh could be as high as Rs 256 billion. Though it is very difficult at this stage to estimate the precise impact on the economy, yet the recent rains and floods would certainly depress the growth rate, reduce the level of exports significantly, worsen the budget deficit further due to lower tax receipts and increasing claims for rehabilitation, increase unemployment and spur inflationary pressures on the economy. A considerable weakening of the Pak rupee and sharp increase in the prices of vegetables and fruits in the last few days could be an indication of the negative developments likely to unfold in the near future.

We feel that the government needs to move fast on at least two fronts. Although, the NDMA was established with high hopes but unfortunately, it failed to deliver due to a variety of factors, including a lack of needed resources and disaster management expertise. As the tragedy is likely to be of recurring nature, some credible institutional arrangement needs to be established without losing more time to lessen the effects of such calamities in future. Also, the government must devise a proper mechanism to calculate the total impact in quantitative terms, revise almost all the original estimates and come up with a proper policy response to meet the challenge. For instance, fiscal policy has to be readjusted to take care of the new developments and keep the inflationary pressures in check. Besides, players like the lobbies of agriculturists, ginners and Aptma must not be allowed to take undue advantage of the situation by twisting the facts on the ground. A fresh strategy may also have to be adopted to approach the IMF if the current account balance of the country comes under pressure due to a significant decline in exports. In short, while nature has its own ways to manage the affairs of the universe, mankind should also strive to contribute its little bit by being more imaginative and energetic.

Need to Promote Floriculture in Pakistan

FLORICULTURE is fast emerging as a profitable venture and the country is also earning a sizable foreign exchange by exporting roses to Middle East and European countries.
The local production of cut flowers is estimated at about 10,000-12,000 tons per annum. Roses are popular crop for both domestic and commercial cut flowers. They are harvested and cut when in bud and held in refrigerated conditions until ready for display at their point of sale.
Both local and grafted roses are grown in all the four provinces of the country, but Punjab has lion’s share in production of grafted roses and supply to all the cities of the country.
Roses may be grown in any well-drained soil with optimum sunlight. Most rose varieties are grown by budding on lower portion of a plant and propagated from seeds or cuttings. Clay soils, warm temperatures are always preferred, and the rose plants grow best when not set among other plants. Cow manure is the preferred fertilizer for rose cultivation, but other organic fertilisers, especially composts, are also used.
Rose plants usually require severe pruning, which must be adapted to the intended use of the flowers. Pattoki, a small town about 80-km south of Lahore, has emerged as a leading home for cut flower floriculture technology. More than one million pieces of cut flowers are sent daily from this town to all the major cities of the country. The availability of flowers and ornamental plants has recently increased with change in crop production priorities and rise in living standards. The availability of pick flowers of red rose in use since ages for garlands has increased manifold. Additionally, cut flowers for flowers arrangements have sprung up in market due to demand pull by the local consumers.
The demand for long stem roses, tube roses, gladioli has tremendously increased. In order to explain the cultivation of these plants, import of quality hybrid flower seeds and planting material may be allowed free of duty to promote production of quality leading to export. The small items of machinery and shading nets to be used by the flowers and ornamental plant nurseries should be exempted from the levy of duty.
Roses are best known as ornamental plants grown for their flowers in the garden and sometimes indoors. They have been also used for commercial perfumery and commercial cut flower crops. Some are used as landscape plants, for hedging and for other utilitarian purposes such as game cover. They also have minor medicinal uses. The majority of ornamental roses are selected hybrids. A few, mostly species roses are grown for scented foliage, ornamental thorns or for their ornamental fruit.
Rose perfumes are made from attar of roses or rose oil, which is a mixture of volatile essential oils obtained by steam distilling the crushed petals of roses. An associated product is rose water which is used for cooking, cosmetics, medicine and in religious practices. Rose water made as a byproduct of rose oil production, is widely used in Asian and Middle Eastern cuisine. The French are known for their rose syrup, most commonly made from an extract of rose petals.
By observing the rapid growth in cut flower export, this business can become Pakistan’s second largest export sector after textile if the government encourages the cut flower growers by facilitating them to provide better technology in the year round production, refrigerated transportation and exploring more foreign markets.
The world trade of cut flowers runs in billion of dollars and Holland serves as the centre of cut flower business.
The cut flowers trade is tremendously increasing due to its demand worldwide. The cut flowers importing countries are: Australia, Denmark, Dubai, France, Italy, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Syria, Turkey, U.S.A. and United Kingdom and the major suppliers are Colombia, Ecuador, India, Israel, Kenya and Zimbabwe

Agro-Export Processing Zone for Fruits, Vegetables and Flowers

Lack of effective vegetable export policy, poor marketing planning, inadequate agriculture extension services, lack of coordination between growers and agriculture department officials, are major problems being faced by vegetable growers in Pakistan.

Agriculture sector would continue to under-perform until these problems are resolved, the government should evolve policies and programs to increase export of various vegetables. The Trade Development Authority should explore new markets for export of surplus vegetables and fruits.

Initiatives for value-addition including packaging of vegetables and setting up of storage facilities in rural areas can help reduce losses and generate new employment opportunities, export of fresh vegetables could help stabilize prices in the domestic market.

There is a need for setting up of processing units for value-addition and packaging in vegetable-growing districts. Otherwise growers were bound to face the 2007-like situation when they were forced to sell out their tomato at Rs2-3 per kg, much below their production cost of Rs7 per kg.

Officials in the provincial agriculture department said that the government had taken a number of initiatives to help boost export of vegetables and fruits.

An Rs399 million scheme has been approved for the current fiscal year for establishment of agro-export processing zone for fruits, vegetables and flowers,” said Muhammad Arif Khairi, deputy secretary (technical) Sindh Agriculture Department. He told this scribe that the scheme was pending, awaiting clearance with the provincial P&D department. Once it was cleared, work on the project would start on fast track basis. It would help local firms to export their produce directly.

Food Security in Pakistan: The Current Status and the Way forward

In order to bring a very vital issue in the forefront a study was primarily conducted to prepare a policy paper on the Status of Food Security in Pakistan and A way forward. The paper was presented to the Parliamentarians so it can help evolve a policy on the issue of food security in Pakistan and a way out to address the issue. The study analyzed the reasons of recent global food crises, examining the effects of climate change, the rising food prices, the rise in the global oil prices, biofuel production, shortfall in stocks of food, commodity market speculation and the increasing demand of food in China and India. Our team came to the conclusion the all the above mentioned reasons did play a role in reduction to availability of food in Pakistan, however the recent food crises in Pakistan was mainly due to mismanagement and bad governance. As a result, the following recommendations were presented for food security in Pakistan;
1. There is a need to overhaul the research and market systems
2. There is a need to improve the management of food stocks
3. There is dire need for good governance
4. For the parts of population experiencing chronic and extreme food insecurity, establishing short to medium term social safety nets is essential.
5. In the medium-term, Government of Pakistan needs to focus on improved availability of food at affordable prices
6. Legislators should not only focus on policy and laws that would enhance the production but also on measures to ensure a sustained access to food as well as factors helping in food absorption